Provocative title aside, let me explain.
Before anyone gets too far into this, the usual up front: This might be really long, and poorly reasoned. But isn't that what blogs are for?
Okay, here goes.
Outsourcing is still a major topic of ire for Americans. We complain about it all the time. I rarely go to a function without someone mentioning that they've lost their job to outsourcing or that it's W's fault or that labor unions have made it so attractive for our companies to push so many jobs overseas to cheaper labor. Topic #1: Why aren't we doing anything about it? And if there's something to do, what is it?
The numbers are beginning to have an impact on American life. In the July 25, 2005 Fortune mag article "America Isn't Ready", the statistics (as much as you can believe them) are staggering: McKinsey Global Institute predicts that 49% of packaged software jobs could be outsourced to low-wage countries; some 25% of worldwide banking jobs, 19% of insurance jobs, and 52% of engineering jobs. Yikes. If these totals were to come to fruition, the US unemployment rate would jump from 5 to 11.4%. That's mind boggling.
We're hearing all the time now that our American kids are becoming "Dumb and Dumber". We're steadily falling down the ladder in academic achievement. In that same Fortune article, US 15 year olds now rank 28th in mathematical achievement. Who's the top 5? Finland, South Korea, Canada, Hong Kong, and Netherlands. Now for some ranting: In some of these countries there's nothing to do other than study and in others the government's threatening to imprison your family for failing the tests. Topic #2: Do we want our children to become education automatons?
Along with the Fortune article are some sidebar topics, such as how confident the Indian and Asian teens are to succeed. "We have the best brains, and we beat anyone -- no one is ahead of us," opines one Saksham Karwal. The sidebar includes the word "want" another 8 times. The kids want to do this, want to go to school there, or want to dominate the overnight package delivery industry (just kidding). But there's a heck of a lot of want in there. Topic #3: With this much want, is there the intestinal fortitude to "do" when the breaks are beating the boys (no sexism intended)?
Why aren't we doing anything about all of this change? Because right now we don't feel like it's really something that affects us, that's why. We're complaining on the surface while things are eaten away slowly. There's a number of arguments here: We do nothing about it because we don't see a threat, and that's the wrong thing to do because this is how insidious diseases eventually choke the life from our bodies. They start small and undetectable and then, one day, they've invaded our lungs and brains and it's over. Another argument is that we've become a more well-rounded nation. We're a nation of liberal arts majors. We don't need to only have the manufacturing jobs anymore. We're adaptable. We're moving ahead. Let the 3rd world have the manufacturing jobs, make cheap stuff for us. Why not? They work cheap, right? We'll re-train Americans for more complex, yet less physically demanding, work. As I've argued before, did the steam engine put all of our horses and farmers out of work? No, we adapted and found new ways to work. The bigger threat, though, is in the more purely thinking jobs such as engineering. The more the separated jobs between the physical and virtual are outsourced, the more we are at risk for losing our standard and way of life.
Again, what do we do?
This will be unpopular with lots of folks, but it leads to issue #2. We need to incent our kids to care more about education and testing and learning. I don't think our kids are dumb. They've become fat (literally) and lazy. Why should they show up for some international test that has no bearing on where they go to college or get their next minimum wage job? There is no incentive for our high-school kids to do well anymore on these standardized tests. Just telling them that they can outscore the Canadians and high-five each other ain't enough. The kids who do show up for these things are leaving answers blank, too, because they just can't be bothered to write an essay they don't care about.
We need an educational Olympics that actually rewards our winners. Create a competition that rewards educational success with scholarships and things that kids want, like iPods. Do it every four years. And during the intervening years, the US would hold elimination tourneys to get our best and brightest onto the team, just like our Olympic athletes. But do not, and I firmly reiterate, do not segregate them from society like the North Koreans or old Soviet Union to become educational freaks the way the Olympic athletes were taken from their families and sequestered for years with the threat of gulags if they didn't bring home the gold.
Finally, how will these developing countries react when things don't go their way? Or if, possibly, the bravado, entrepreneurialism, and confidence is suddenly eroded by failure? Or competition? Doesn't anyone else find it ironic that for all the confidence we hear about these folks they've yet to consider the effects of saturation? If everyone's so driven, so smart, so entrepreneurial, aren't they bound to run across someone more of the same? And fail? Not everyone can win right? This isn't bumper bowling, folks. This is business. And business, especially of the free market economy type, isn't exactly a kid glove experience. It's dog eat dog. Did the Japanese not have a similar experience in the '80s when they were dominating industry and buying up Pebble Beach? Their own markets and society didn't adjust well and look where they are now. Most of them aren't exactly teeing it up on #1 with Kevin Costner anymore.
Maybe the Indians and Chinese will be different. Maybe they've learned from other experiences. But then again, maybe they haven't. Maybe they're all flush with confidence and high-paying jobs flowing in from American companies pleased to be cutting costs and getting solid work. And maybe we're making the world a more global experience for everyone. Maybe we're the ones who're giving in a way we never expected. And maybe we're doing this for the love of our money, too, in a completely selfish style. Who knows? Finally, and think hard about this, how long will those low-paying wages satisfy these folks who until now have had nothing? How long will it be before they start demanding raises? They're going to sit there in a factory with no representation and minimal wages forever? Where's the first union representative going to come from? When's the first battle between workers and managers going to come? And when it does, when will it get violent?
But I'll say this: No matter how many wars they've won or lost on the battlefield, the Chinese and Indians and even South Americans (the next "near-sourcing" opportunity) have never, ever battled the way Americans have in business. Our war of independence makes us uniquely qualified to fight to the last person to maintain our way of life. Americans are like Microsoft when they realized the Internet was the next big thing: "Quick, build a browser and give it away!" And they did. And, until recently, that was it for everybody else.
Next time you're whining or hear someone else whine about outsourcing, think about what it means for you, your family, and Americans. We're making the world stronger, making products cheaper for all of us, and losing jobs. We're also creating opportunity for ourselves and the world. And when you fear that our kids are getting dumberer and dumberer, don't fret. They're simply not motivated to win. Find a way to do this, and we will. Finally, when you can't bring yourself any closer to the brink of saying outsourcing is positive, maybe after you've lost your job to someone who'll do it for 1/5th of what you're paid, think to yourself, "Can it stay this way forever?" Nope.
The world is one big place that seems to be closing in on itself. We're globally becoming one industrialized region. But in these newly found hotspots I argue that they haven't seen the effects of free market economy yet. And when they do, they'll be chewing off each others' legs as quickly as Paris Hilton can get her Sidekick hacked. Success carries as much pressure as failure. And the countries we're currently so concerned with have yet to see the pressures of success truly change them. When they do we might all just sit back and have the last laugh while they're outsourcing things back to us.
